By Rolando V. Garcia
Due to the critical drought within the Sahel sector of Africa (at its climax in 1972) and the catastrophic path of human agony which undefined, the foreign Federation of Institutes for complicated research (IFIAS) and the Aspen Institute arrange a joint significant foreign venture whose major function was once to hunt a deeper research of the explanations of the catastrophe. The venture probed deeply into the social, political, financial and moral implications of the impression of climatic anomalies on guy, in a provocative 38-month learn performed by means of Rolando Garcia and a unique group of collaborators. The findings - very important, novel, usually arguable, occasionally unpopular of their influence - are contained in a three-volume examine, Drought and guy, of which this is often the 1st booklet
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Extra resources for Nature Pleads Not Guilty. The 1972 Case History
At the same time, the notion úi^x food security depended on such world grain reserves was quickly adopted in the language used by the international agencies. Thus, the then Director-General of FAO in his report on **The State of Food Supplies and Agriculture in 1974" says: *Tor the third consecutive year the world food and agricultural situation must be viewed with grave concern. During much of 1974 there were high hopes that this year would bring the bountiful harvests so badly needed for the world to begin to emerge from the food crisis that started with the widespread bad 28 Nature Pleads Not Guilty TABLE L9 Index of World Food Security, (millions metric tons) 1961-74 Year Reserve stocks of grain Grain equivalent of idled US cropland Total reserves Reserves as days of annual grain consumption 1961 1962 1963 1964 154 131 125 128 68 81 70 70 222 212 195 198 95 88 77 77 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 113 99 100 116 136 71 79 51 61 73 184 178 151 177 209 69 66 55 62 69 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974» 146 120 131 106 90 71 41 78 24 0 217 161 209 130 90 69 51 66 40 26 weather and poor crops of 1972.
3. The 1971-2 change in production was specified in the 1975 yearbook as an increase of 2 index points. In 1976 the change was zero. In 1977 the change had become a decrease of 1 index point. We can see that an analyst can choose three interpreta tions, depending on which yearbook is consulted. No blame can be ascribed to FAO; they use the figures they obtain from the countries. What are the most reliable figures? How can we make a reliable analysis? This problem is pointed out to future analysts as one class of problem deserving detailed study.
7. USSR Agriculture Atlas. Central Intelligence Agency, December 1974. 8. We assume that the CIA refers here to the effect of the 1972 drought not only on the quantity but also on the quality of wheat produced. 9. We know, for example, that if we subtract one from the other two nearly equal large numbers, each of which having some small error (of about the same magnitude as the difference), then the difference will be statistically meaningless. ANNEX 1972-3 Soviet Grain Imports and the Weathen by Michael Ellman (1) During the 1970s the USSR was a substantial grain importer, as Table A .