By Hardy A. S.
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62 %. The economic growth rate will be steadily above 7 % and the employment situation will also be basically stable. All of these will continue to create favorable environment for deepening comprehensive economic reform and boosting the potential growth rate. 24 2 China’s Macroeconomic Forecast from 2015 to 2016 Fig. 8 Forecasts of the quarterly consumption growth rates (on the basis of year-on year). Note: CON_D_C denotes the growth rate of gross household consumption (constant price); RETAIL denotes the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumption (current price).
Further optimizing the economic structure is beneﬁcial to raise the potential growth rate. 03 % point compared to the benchmark model. 0 % in 2020 through higher investment if the relative labor productivity of the tertiary 1 Including industry, investment, manufacturing, and consumption structure. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016 W. 1007/978-981-10-0227-4_5 43 44 5 Conclusions and Policy Suggestions industry against the secondary industry could be increased at the growth rate of 5 % annually.
In this way, the transformation of the China’s economy will beneﬁt for not only the expansion of employment, but also improvement of residential real income, thus further promoting the transformation of economic growth pattern. Based on CQMM, our research team makes the following simulation: we assume that from 2012 to 2014, the ceiling of the deposit rate is abolished, and therefore the interest margin is reduced. 06 % points in 2012, due to interest rate liberalization from the ﬁrst quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2014.