China’s Macroeconomic Outlook: Quarterly Forecast and by Wenpu Li (auth.)

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By Wenpu Li (auth.)

This booklet is a quarterly forecast and research document at the chinese language financial system. it's released two times a 12 months and offers ongoing effects from the “China Quarterly Macroeconomic version (CQMM),” a examine undertaking on the middle for Macroeconomic examine (CMR) at Xiamen collage. in accordance with the CQMM version, the study workforce forecast significant macroeconomic symptoms for the following eight quarters, together with the speed of GDP development, the CPI, fixed-asset funding, resident intake and international alternate. while it makes a speciality of simulation of present macroeconomic regulations in China. as well as assisting readers comprehend China’s monetary development and coverage consultant, this publication has 3 major targets: to aid readers comprehend China’s fiscal functionality; to forecast the most macroeconomic symptoms for the subsequent eight quarters; and to simulate the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies.

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62 %. The economic growth rate will be steadily above 7 % and the employment situation will also be basically stable. All of these will continue to create favorable environment for deepening comprehensive economic reform and boosting the potential growth rate. 24 2 China’s Macroeconomic Forecast from 2015 to 2016 Fig. 8 Forecasts of the quarterly consumption growth rates (on the basis of year-on year). Note: CON_D_C denotes the growth rate of gross household consumption (constant price); RETAIL denotes the growth rate of total retail sales of social consumption (current price).

Further optimizing the economic structure is beneficial to raise the potential growth rate. 03 % point compared to the benchmark model. 0 % in 2020 through higher investment if the relative labor productivity of the tertiary 1 Including industry, investment, manufacturing, and consumption structure. © Springer Science+Business Media Singapore 2016 W. 1007/978-981-10-0227-4_5 43 44 5 Conclusions and Policy Suggestions industry against the secondary industry could be increased at the growth rate of 5 % annually.

In this way, the transformation of the China’s economy will benefit for not only the expansion of employment, but also improvement of residential real income, thus further promoting the transformation of economic growth pattern. Based on CQMM, our research team makes the following simulation: we assume that from 2012 to 2014, the ceiling of the deposit rate is abolished, and therefore the interest margin is reduced. 06 % points in 2012, due to interest rate liberalization from the first quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2014.

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