Assessing the impacts of agricultural biotechnologies: by Brent Herbert-Copley, International Development Research

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By Brent Herbert-Copley, International Development Research Centre (Canada)

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5/year. The slow growth in the demand of importing industrialized countries for major export commodities of the developing countries is a key constraint for the growth of their production. 0% is, therefore, attributed to each quinquennium from 1990 to 2005, respectively. These estimates are based on the accentuated export-oriented character of cocoa production and also supported by the long-term effect of the possible biotechnological breakthroughs for this crop improvement. Any potential substitution for cocoa will be accomplished more slowly than in the case of coffee considering that "traditional breeding in cocoa has not been as extensive as in coffee" and "tissue culture techniques have not been so advanced in cocoa" (Sondahl 1991) .

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Development Centre, Paris, France. A. 1992. Impact of structural adjustment and adoption of technology on competitiveness of major cocoa producing countries. Technical Paper No. 69, June. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Development Centre, Paris, France. Brenner, C. 1991. Biotechnology and developing-country agriculture: The case of maize. Development Centre Studies. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Development Centre, Paris, France.

Quantitative ex-post assessment of agricultural biotechnology products is also, to date, very limited. The first wave of genetically engineered products is only now beginning to reach 29 the market, and very little economic analysis of the earlier products of tissue culture and micropropagation has been published. S. and Canada may have little relevance to the production systems, management, and climatic conditions of many developing countries. A large part of the work on biotechnology assessment related to developing countries has focused on supply-side problems and constraints, with little assessment of potential demand.

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